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Current Top PicksA Short History Of The War On Syria – 2006-2014 Open ThreadsOpen Thread 2016-21 R. Galustian on LibyaLibya – How Moscow Can Influence A Unity Deal Recent MoA PostsThe Next “Russian Government Cyber Attack” May Be A Gulf of Tonkin Fake Monthly ArchivesJune 2016 Powered by TypePad
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June 16, 2016
The Next “Russian Government Cyber Attack” May Be A Gulf of Tonkin FakeYesterday the Washington Post published a piece that smelled of bullshit from the first line to the last: Russian government hackers penetrated DNC, stole opposition research on Trump.
Why the f*** would Russia want to steal oppo research about Trump when it can read such in Politico and the Washington Post every day? Why start A YEAR AGO to hack something for Trump data? Who would have thought A YEAR AGO that Trump would be relevant? This was obvious nonsense. But some snakeoil salesmen convinced the Washington Post know-nothing reporter and the DNC that it all must be true:
If there was a hacker breaking some servers for over a year how the hell would anyone know what s/he accessed? There is no assured way to know what files were touched. And to conclude from what was probably taken to “must thereby have been Russia” is plainly stupid.
All one might see in a breach, if anything, is some pattern of action that may seem typical for one adversary. But anyone else can imitate such a pattern as soon as it is known. That is why there is NEVER a clear attribution in such cases. Anyone claiming otherwise is lying or has no idea what s/he is speaking of. Russia denied to have anything to do with that alleged hack. That did not prevent the Washington Post to come with a listical about Five more hacks the West has tied to Russia none of which is likely to have any Russian origin. Trump for one claims that the DNC “hacked” itself to be able to publish their claims against him. But now for the fun. A hacker calling himself Guccifer 2.0 just published ablogpost with documents from the hack of the DNC server.
Not astonishingly the published documents include those with “financial, donor or personal information” which the DNC unconvincingly claimed had not be accessed. Guccifer 2.0 writes that most of the documents will soon be published via Wikileaks. The whole story in the Washington Post was a anti-Russia nonsense based on self-promotion of an obviously incompetent cyber security company. But it is dangerous. I am afraid that such propaganda will one day be used as another Gulf of Tonkin fake to start a war. NATO is already preparing the public for such a move:
One wonders if the Washington Post scaremongering about alleged Russian cyber abilities was coordinated with that NATO announcement. To even think of such conventional retribution for a cyber attack is lunatic. No cyber attack is ever attributable with any certainty. The U.S. National Security Agency, as well as other state sponsored entities, would have no trouble to fake a “Russian cyber attack”. If one lone hacker in the U.S., where Guccifer 2.0 seems to reside, can do such how much more convincing would any intentional, government sponsored fake be? Posted by b at 04:03 AM | Comments (70)
June 14, 2016
Open Thread 2016-21News & views (other than on the U.S. election) … Posted by b at 12:56 PM | Comments (121)
June 13, 2016
A Few More Questions About The Orlando MassacreSome additional bits about the NYPD fan who allegedly killed some 50 people in Orlando are coming to light.The father of the guy who is an immigrant from Afghanistan was a bit of a loon himself. He damned Pakistan and Afghan politicians over the Durand line. He put himself forward as a candidate for the Afghan presidency even when no election was in sight. His son, the killer, was known to the FBI as a loon. He hated black, gays, Jews etc and had claimed affinity to the Boston bomber, Al-Qaeda, Hizbullah and the Islamic State – three groups which hate each other. He was not known to have any contact to any of these groups. The Islamic State took the obvious step of adopting the shooter. The claim of IS responsibility did not come from the core organization but from its “news” agency which cited “sources”. The IS folks are unlikely to have known of his existence until they heard the news. For them it is just good propaganda to claim a relation. The various politicians use the case as they use any case. They propagandize their favorite policies and whatever facts of the case do not fit those policies are simply shoved aside. One can only ignore them and hope that over time sanity will prevail. There are open questions I have yet to find answered: Any big event in these days produces dozens of videos. Some people inside the club must have filmed whatever happened. Will we ever see those clips? How does one guy in a club full of men manages to shoot 50+ and wound another 50+ without getting overwhelmed? He needed to change ammunition clips several times. The ideal time to attack him. Where there no three strong guys around in the club to jump him? Was it really only one shooter? Those are a lot of casualties for one sole loon to cause. It will take weeks until a more or less solid picture of the incident can be painted. There will of course be lots of speculations about false flag attacks and the like, including here in the comments. I do not see any evidence for such. The FBI had him on its radar? Well, there are some 600,000 people on the U.S. no-fly-list. Hardly any of them is a “terrorists”. The FBI has even more under on and off surveillance. Its haystack is too big to find the real needles. They thought he as a loon and not a danger. They were right with the loon part. Posted by b at 02:20 PM | Comments (129)
June 12, 2016
Orlando Killer Was NYPD Fan – This Tells Us What?Last night some deadbeat loser killed more than 50 people in a gay club in Orlando, Florida. It is the largest shooting massacre in the U.S. since Wounded Knee. According to his ex-wife the man, one Omar Mateen, used to beat her and was not religious. He had worked for the private prison and mercenary corporation G4S for more than five years. There were U.S. Marines stickers on his car. Earlier Mateen took pictures of himself and posted those on Myspace. The pics are selfies and mostly not remarkable but in TWO of them he wears shirts with New York Police Department emblems on them.
This tells us what?
There is currently a lot of speculation, but no public evidence, that the guy was also a fan of the Islamic State (ISIS) death cult. None of the pictures he posted points into that direction, but it still may be the case. But what does that really tell us? Was his emotional relation to ISIS as strong as his emotional relation to the NYPD? Do such assumed allegiances tell us anything at all? Posted by b at 01:18 PM | Comments (140)
June 11, 2016
Clashes In Marseille Foreshadow Wider Sectarian WarMarseille – Clashes between sectarian supporters of two opposed participants in an ancient ritual games erupted today. Observers fear that these could escalate into a wide sectarian war throughout Europe. Local militia intervened but as their own religion is despised by the two brawling sides ended up fighting both. The street fights started after organized supporters of the orthodox Russian team threw beer bottles towards drunk partisans of protestant Englishmen. Throwing beer bottles is seen as an insult in Europe. Catholic French militia used tear gas and indiscriminately attacked the quarreling sides as well as bystanders. Locals accuse the militia of attacking its own people and demanded the immediate downfall of the Hollande regime. Protestant Englishmen, catholic Frenchmen and orthodox Slavs hate each other due to deep-rooted sectarian history and a long series of wars in Europe. Ugly violence is rooted in conflicts that date back to the Anglo-French wars in the 13th century and Napoleon’s moves deep into Russia. A siege in 1627 marked the apex of local sectarian tensions in France. It ended with a catholic victory despite relief for the protestants arriving from England. The clashes between U.S.-backed Englishmen and Chinese-backed Russians in France are also part of a proxy war between capitalism and communism in the South China Sea. After its militia lost control of the fighting, the catholic government of France pledged to send reinforcements to crack down on all sides. Humanitarian organizations pleaded to show restraint and not to hurt moderates involved in the brawls. Regional experts discussed providing arms to some less sectarian participants. Catholic authorities from Poland called on NATO to hold Putin accountable for the clashes in Marseille. Russian aggression versus any NATO members can not be tolerated, they said. h/t Hayder al-Khoei Posted by b at 02:03 PM | Comments (88)
June 10, 2016
The U.S. (Again) Escalates The War In AfghanistanWhen Obama came into office he promised to end the hopeless war in Afghanistan. Immediately the Pentagon ambushed him with requests for a “surge” with some additional 40,000 troops. Under pressure Obama agreed to a lower number and set a 18 month limit for their deployment. Those troops occupied some meaningless areas in Afghanistan and when they were withdrawn those areas fell back to Taliban rule. Currently the U.S. has some 10,000 troops and more than 20,000 “contractors” in Afghanistan. There are additional troops from NATO allies. Since 2014 these troops are restricted in their tasks to fighting Al-Qaeda and are not supposed to support Afghan government troops. But the idea of turning the war over to local troops without losing to the Taliban failed. Afghan troops are giving ground especially in the south and have a high attrition rate. It is obviously that without change the whole south would fall to the Taliban by end of the year. This would hardly matter to anyone but the people living there many of whom have no problem with their Taliban brethren. Several steps taken by the U.S. have made it more unlikely that the conflict will come to an end. The primary Taliban demand in any peace talks is the the removal of all foreign troops from the country. The U.S. and the U.S. installed puppet government have rejected that. Instead of finally giving upthe U.S. military wants to continue to occupy Afghanistan. The U.S. recently killed a innocent taxi driver in south Pakistan and his passenger, the Taliban commander Mansour, with a military drone strike. All available science on the issue says that assassinating the leader of a resistance movement does not end such movements but let them intensify their conflict and cause more civilian casualties. The Taliban operations did not halt for one moment. A new hardline leader was elected and bigger operations against Afghan troops were launched. In a recent political change of direction the U.S. is now making nice with India to use it as a pawn in the competition with China. At the same time it stopped payments to the Pakistani military. In a countermove China intensified its cooperation and its investment in Pakistan. The Taliban have their training camps, leadership organization and support in Pakistan. The Pakistani secret services are feeding them with Saudi money. Shunning Pakistan and making nice with India will intensify Pakistani paranoia of a two front war against their arch enemy India supported by the U.S. in Afghanistan. Pakistan is therefore likely to further intensify its support for the Taliban. These have an endless stream of recruits from Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan and enough material support to fight on for decades. Meanwhile the Afghan government troops are unwilling to shed blood for their corrupt government, operational incapable and disorganized despite years of U.S. training. The only way to end the war in Afghanistan is through peace negotiations. Some main conditions of the Taliban must be met to let those succeed. Foreign troops will have to leave the country. Otherwise the conflict will go on for more decades and will again metastasize into neighbor countries. The Obama administration seems to be incapable of recognizing that. Instead of reducing troops it is contemplating to again reinforce those. Instead of deescalating the war it intensifies it. This despite years of failure to achieve anything positive with similar moves.
This “new” policy is incoherent:
More bombing will not cower the Taliban who have been bombed by the U.S. for the last 15 years. More U.S. troops will not change the strategic equations for China, Pakistan and the Taliban. The U.S. and the especially the U.S. military have lost in Afghanistan. How many additional decades will it take it to recognize and admit that simple fact? Posted by b at 01:13 PM | Comments (79)
June 09, 2016
Libya – How Moscow Can Influence A Unity Dealby Richard Galustian Russia’s growing influence in Libya is reflecting their ever evolving new Middle East and North African policy. While Libya has been divided between two parliaments and governments since 2014, Russia’s influence has grown with East Libya. A review of the United Nations resolution on Libya’s arms embargo is likely to be voted upon early next week. However this will only be achieved if Russian concerns can be overcome. Despite the international efforts a paradox remains. A partial lifting of the UN’s arms embargo to one side will greatly increase the danger of swelling the intensity of the civil war and of risking some of those arms reaching the Islamic State in Libya. The Russians do not understand the West’s approach to extremists. Russia’s logic is sound as shown in Syria. If it looks like a duck and walks and quacks like a duck; it probably is a duck, to paraphrase Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavarov comment on terrorists. In Libya the two divided factions, the democratically elected eastern government and parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR), and the ‘Libya Dawn’ coalition of Islamist militias who created Tripoli’s National Salvation Government (NSG), are now challenged by a third ‘virtual’ faction, the Government of National Accord (GNA) which was selected by the UN as a nine men, now reduced to seven, Presidency Council (PC), which in effect constitutes a GNA quorum. Let me be clear: The international community supports a non-existent GNA headed by a Western patsy designated prime minister and six other men. To boot, this fledgling Western selected so called government still faces huge unpopularity from the masses who resent Western interference in its internal affairs. The GNA, having no military forces of their own, have agreed with Dawn Militias that they be re-badged ‘the Presidential Guard’ and that they be the recipients of new weapons permitted by the UN if the resolution is accepted by the Security Council. Interestingly Russia’s UN Ambassador Churkin said “the highest priority” in Libya should be to encourage the HoR Parliament in the East approval of the new GNA government. A new twist. If anyone can persuade the East and the HoR to ‘bless’ the GNA, it will be the Russians that will be the broker. Cont. reading: Libya – How Moscow Can Influence A Unity Deal Posted by b at 03:08 AM | Comments (41)
June 08, 2016
U.S. Election Thread 2016-04 – Premature PresumptiveThe Associated Press yesterday declared Hillary Clinton to be the “presumptive” Democratic nominee for the presidential election based on alleged pledges of anonymous super-delegates. This was a quite unprecedented interference in still ongoing and upcoming primaries on a day when no new public vote count was available. Bernie Sanders said he will continue to campaign up to the convention. His hope is that either the FBI will indict Hillary Clinton for using an unsecured private email server for classified state business, or that some other Clinton scandal will make it most likely that she would lose a vote against Trump. In both cases some super-delegates may change their vote and the convention might vote for Sanders as nominee. The FBI is under Obama’s control and there no doubt that he wants Clinton as candidate to continue his right-leaning policies. But the FBI tends to be leaking quite a bit and someone with access to the case may want to speak to some enterprising reporters. Sanders requested a meeting with Obama which will happen on Thursday. Obama will offer him a bad deal which would be akin to a total capitulation. Sanders will look for a way to sneak at least some of his preferred policies into the party agenda. He will demand some significant price for endorsing Clinton and will probably wait to do so up to the last minute. People around the world will wonder what democracy is all about when a race for a presidency ends up as a contest between the two most disliked people in the field who are both proxies for the more or less same small social segment.
The “Not Hillary” voices will not die down. A seemingly racist Trump with otherwise unpredictable policies may be less damaging to the world than anunreconstructed neolibcon Clinton. Posted by b at 01:44 AM | Comments (110)
June 06, 2016
The Greatest – RIP
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Confirming Lenin: Bill Clinton among those to give eulogies at service for Muhammad Ali Posted by b at 09:14 AM | Comments (69)
June 04, 2016
Syria: The U.S. Is Unwilling To Settle – Russia Returns For Another RoundThe Obama administration does not want peace in Syria. The Russians finally have to admit to themselves that the U.S. is no partner for a continuation of a cease fire, a coordinated attack against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda and for peace in Syria. Indeed, as Lavrov explains, the U.S. has again asked to spare al-Qaeda from Russian air strikes even as two UN Security Council resolutions demand its eradication. Huge supply convoys(vid) from Turkey are again going to the “rebels” who will, as always, share them with al-Qaeda and other terrorists. The current renewed Syrian Arab Army attack towards Raqqa is being obstructed not only by sandstorms but also by a timely attack of al-Qaeda, Ahrar al Sham and Turkestan Islamist Party forces against government positions in the south Aleppo countryside.
The exactly same scheme happened in March and April when a move towards eastern Syrian by the Syrian army had to be stopped to prevent further losses against al-Qaeda south of Aleppo. It seems obvious that these moves U.S. supported forces are planned to prevent any gains of the Syrian government in the east. Today Lavrov again talked to Kerry:
As the U.S. is unwilling to settle the Syria conflict Russia will have to retake the initiative. Is this a trap? Does the U.S. want Russia to sink into a quagmire in Syria? That is certainly a possibility but it is hard to see how this could happen when Russia comes back with a vengeance and strikes hard and fast. Russian airstrikes against terrorists in Syria have tripled over the last days. Additional resources have been silently dispatched:
One can only hope that the Russian leadership has learned its lesson. That it will not stop to pursue the enemy for no political gain when it is again, as it likely will soon be, on the run. Posted by b at 02:11 PM | Comments (112)
June 03, 2016
Open Thread 2016-20News & views … Posted by b at 02:33 PM | Comments (131)
June 02, 2016
U.S. Election Thread 2016-03 – Yves Smith On “Not Hillary!”Not Hillary! Yves Smith of the Naked Capitalism explains why many of her progressive acquaintances will either not vote, or vote for Trump in the upcoming U.S. election. I recommend to read this in full. For starters two excerpts: Hillary’s experience is one of failure. And she did not learn from it.
And the conclusion:
To vote for the far right because the former center (left) has lost its bearing is a somewhat dangerous gamble. The U.S. has a relative stable, inertial system with lots of checks and balances that make this move less risky than similar moves underway in Poland, Germany or France. But unless the center left/right politicians recognize that they have lost their former majority there is no chance they will shun the neoliberal globalization nonsense they impose on their constituency. Voting for a stronger movement towards a genuine left is be a better strategy than voting for the far right. But notorious lack of unity within the left, center-right control over the media and the absence of a successful current archetype will keep a majority away from taking that step. I agree that the day of reckoning is a long-overdue day. But it may not bring the reckoning we want. Posted by b at 03:36 AM | Comments (151)
June 01, 2016
The U.S./UK Financed “White Helmets” Shtick – Fake “Child Rescued” VideosBelow is a incomplete list of “rescue” videos showing “kids being rescued” from “rubble” after “Syrian/Russian bombing” prepared by the U.S./UK financed Syria Civil Defence aka the “White Helmets”. The group was created with the help of Purpose Inc, a U.S. company specialized in regime change NGO operations. Purpose Inc is also behind Avaaz which early on peddled fake war on Syria video propaganda. The White Helmets are financed, like all “Free Syrian Army” media propaganda,by USAID with some $23 million and by the UK Foreign Office with a total of some £23 million. The Netherlands and Japan also donated money to the scheme. The group was build up and trained since mid 2013 by a “former” UK military intelligence operator residing in Abu Dhabi. These arepropaganda artists camouflaged as humanitarians. The “White Helmets” cooperate closely with al-Qaeda. One of its leaders was recently denied an entry visa to the United States. More details about the group researched by Vanessa Beeley can be found here and here. Back to the “rescue” videos. That shtick started in late 2013.
After that great marketing success the movie script was serialized. Since then a new version of a “child rescued” video appears every other month or so. Here are just a few of these with all of them following the same script.
This May 25 video is typical. Someone fiddles with professional rescue air pressure mats to show off but those mats are never put to use. Someone else digs with his hands under or behind a concrete slab which has a rather large opening on the side. A smiling and laughing child, totally unharmed and its favorite pupped in hand, is pulled from under or behind the concrete slab to lots of Allah Akbar shouting by the (always male) bystanders. Not shown: kid gets the promised candies for such great performance. Other typical features of these movies, see this one, are smoke (grenades) in the streets, dramatic but small open fires nearby, dust or some red color on the children’s face or arms. The camera is often used in a hectic, intentionally amateurish first person view, a style extensively developed in the 1999 horror clip Blair Witch Project. Sometimes sounds of additional “bomb impact” bangs or screaming/wailing women are added. All the above videos are just as (un-)real as the faked “Hero Boy” videoshowing a “Syrian boy ducking sniper fire to rescue a trapped girl”. Fake “opposition” videos have been a major feature of the media war on Syria. These fakes are often easily recognizable as such. We can be sure that the media professionals at the BBC and other outlets know that these are not real rescue scenes. They distribute them nonetheless. Posted by b at 03:55 AM | Comments (50)
May 31, 2016
Not A Hospital, Not A Russian Strike, Not Civilian – Propaganda Fail In SyriaBelow a dissection of another failed propaganda effort in the war of Syria. There are also two news items at the end which may be of interest. A sometimes reliable account tweeted last night:
That sounded plausible. The U.S. funded White Helmets are known for their close cooperation with al-Qaeda. The (British/U.S.?) propaganda account Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently(@raqqa_sl) was awarded the International Press Freedom Award in 2015 from the Committee to Protect Journalists. It had a different version of the air strike. Cont. reading: Not A Hospital, Not A Russian Strike, Not Civilian – Propaganda Fail In Syria Posted by b at 01:22 PM | Comments (28)
May 30, 2016
On The Inevitability Of Human ProgressTo those who believe in the inevitability of human progress …
Posted by b at 09:52 AM | Comments (83)
May 28, 2016
More Messy Meddling In Libyaby Richard GalustianLet us look at the latest ‘comedy of errors’ in Libya courtesy of the U.S./UN & UK and their appointed Presidency Council (PC) and Government of National Accord (GNA). East Libya ordered four billion Libyan dinars to be printed by a Russian factory and first deliveries are starting and will be available through banks from the 1st June. Last week the PC wrote to the US Government saying the four billion was counterfeit. The US issued a formal statement, not from Washington, but on the Facebook page of the US Embassy in Libya statingthey agreed, it was counterfeit. But the other day, the PC/GNA and PM designate Fayez Serraj himself made a volte face and said indeed that the currency being printed in Russia is legal. What is this currency confusion? Will the United States retract its statement saying that the democratically elected and internationally recognized Tobruk government is printing counterfeit currencies? Is Serraj trying to make nice with the Kremlin? Questions abound. But what’s even more sickening is that the Islamic State (IS) in Libya reads all the same social media we do. They know Libya’s political spectrum and troubles like the currency double play works to their advantage. Cont. reading: More Messy Meddling In Libya Posted by b at 02:15 AM | Comments (51)
May 27, 2016
New Turkish-U.S. Quarrels About SyriaSome 300 U.S. special forces illegally invaded Syria to support the Syrian Kurds of the YPG organization. The Turks see the YPG as a sister organization to the Kurdish PKK guerrilla in Turkey which area designated terrorist organization while they are fighting for autonomy within Turkey. Only yesterday six Turkish security personal died during fights with the PKK. To Turks the YPG are terrorists. Yesterday the U.S. special forces screwed up mightily by displaying the insignia of the “terrorists” while combating the Islamic State. Leading U.S. media though try to calm the situation down by misleading their readers. To mollify Turkey over the cooperation with the YPG the U.S. attached some Syrian Arab mercenaries to the Kurdish units and designated the gang the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A current operation, probably just a diversion, is to move these forces from the north-eastern Kurdish area of Kobani towards the Syrian capital of the Islamic State in Raqqa. The Kurds do not have any interest in taking Raqqa as they would be unable to hold it and the Arab attachment to them is way to small to give it a try. What the real target of this operation is, except the western public, is yet unknown. The U.S. special forces leading the YPG were caught on camera yesterday. They were obviously in combat even though the official Pentagon position is that these are just advisors and trainers. They also screwed up the U.S. relations with Turkey. Here from pictures taken by an AFP photographer. Cont. reading: New Turkish-U.S. Quarrels About Syria Posted by b at 08:29 AM | Comments (95)
May 26, 2016
Clinton Arrogantly Declines To Debate Sanders – Who Counters And WinsMay 23 2016 – Hillary Clinton declines invitation to debate Bernie Sanders in California
Clinton was obviously afraid to lose votes in California should she keep her promise and again debate Sanders. She arrogantly sees herself as inevitable winner of the primaries as well as the general election. I believe she will lose either one. Her “private” email sever during her time at the State Department wasagainst all rules says the State Department Inspector General ina newly released report. Clinton declined to be interviewed by the IG even after she had promised to help with the issue. This does not only look bad. It is bad. It will cost her dearly. Should she have to compete against Trump she would get ripped apart over this issue alone. Additionally her record at the State Department, which she touts as experience, is a collection of miscalculations and misdeeds to anyone taking a deeper look. Sanders now made the perfect countermove to Clinton’s arrogant rejection of another debate: May 25 2016 – On late night TV, Sanders and Trump agree to a debate — maybe
Sanders responded immediately:
Trump has good media expertise. That debate will indeed have huge ratings. Clinton will be left out. This will catapult Sanders far in front of Clinton in the California primary. It will also showcase to the super-delegates at the Democratic convention that Sanders, unlike Clinton who has huge disliked numbers, is able to defeat Trump in the general election. The overwhelming majority of the super-delegates is promised to Clinton and could give her the majority. But if they see that the party will lose with Clinton as candidate and may well win with Sanders then they have all reason needed to switch their votes. The debate will also help to finally decapitate the Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz who had unfairly favored the already well known Clinton by, for example, scheduling televised debates at times of lower viewership. The preparations for her dismissal are well along:
Clinton has not yet lost the nomination. But she clearly lost this round of the fight. Her arrogant step of avoiding another debate with Sanders will cost her dearly and might be the final issue that takes her down. Posted by b at 07:07 AM | Comments (85)
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