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Week twenty of the Russian military intervention in Syria: a ceasefire and yet another huge victory for Russia

Week twenty of the Russian military intervention in Syria: a ceasefire and yet another huge victory for Russia

Unz ReviewThis article was written for the Unz Review:http://www.unz.com/tsaker/russian-american-agreement-on-syria/

The recent agreement between the USA and Russia really solves nothing, it does not even end the war, and both sides are expressing a great deal of caution about its future implementation.  And yet, this is a huge victory for Russia.  While it is too early to say that “the Russian won in Syria”, I think that it is now fair to say that the Russian position on Syria has won.  Here is why:

First: nobody is suggesting anymore that Assad will be ousted or Damascus taken.  That, in turn, meansthat everybody has now recognized that Syrian Arab Republic, backed by Russia, has successfully repelled the aggression of the huge coalition the AngloZionists built to overthrow Assad.

Second: Russia has forced the UNSC and the USA to admit that the vast majority of those who fight Assad today are terrorist.  Of course, this is not how this was declared, but if you look at the organizations which the UNSC has already declared as ‘terrorists’ then you already have an absolute majority of the anti-Assad forces.  This means that the moral and legal legitimacy of the anti-Assad forces is lies in tatters.

Third: regardless of what Erdogan does actually try to do next, there are now clear signs that neither NATO, nor the EU nor even the Turkish high military command want a war with Russia.  And that means that Erdogan’s gamble has not paid off and that his entire Syria policy is now comprehensively dead.  Keep in mind that following the treacherous attack on the Russian Su-24 the Kremlin made it a policy goal to “Saakashvilize” Erdogan.  This goal is now almost reached and Erdogan’s future looks very, very bleak: everybody ( except maybe the Saudis) is sick and tired of this maniac.  The best thing which could happen to Turkey now would for the military to get rid of Erdogan and to replace him with somebody willing to repair all the damage he did.

Fourth: all the threats to impose a no-fly zone or to occupy Syria have now been invalidated by an agreement which basically declares that anybody not respecting the cease-fire is a legitimate target for engagement and destruction.

Fifth: the USA had to accept the humiliation of having to agree to all of the Russian terms for the current ceasefire.  Yes, of course, the USA can, and probably will, try renege on part, or all, of this agreement, but the precedent has been set and it will be very hard, if not impossible, for the USA to openly return to the pre-2016 policies.

Sixth: does anybody still remember the rhetoric of Hillary Clinton about Syria and Russia?  Her position was crystal clear: Assad must go and those who support him “punished”.  Even after the Russian military offensive began, the US refused to tell the Russians where the “good terrorists” were and where the “bad terrorists” were.  No exchange of information with Russians was acceptable.  Now the Americans had to agree to work with the Russians on a map of Syria designating where the participants of the ceasefire and were those who were not included in the ceasefire were deployed.  In other words, the US will now have to share with Russia all the info it previously refused to share and work with the Russians on a daily basis.

Seventh: Russia has basically co-opted the so-called “Free Syrian Army”.  How?  By basically forcing every single faction in Syria to chose between one of two possible statuses: being a ‘terrorist’ (and a fair target for destruction) or being a participant in a political process entirely designed by RussiaThe Russians are now even opening a “Truce Center” at the Khmeimin airbase near Latakia which will now “render assistance” to all the parties to the ceasefire.

Russian_Air_Force_Sukhoi_Su-34

This, for the time being, mainly a diplomatic victory, of course, but a Russian diplomatic victory made possible by a Russian military victory.  A tiny Russian military contingent has basically completely neutralized the plans of an entire worldwide Empire.  That, in itself, is an amazing achievement.

The other big winner here are, in my opinion, the Kurds who, according to British officials, appear to be coordinating their military operations with the Syrian army and the Russian Aerospace Forces and who now might well even achieve their dreams of joining the Iraqi and Syria regions of Kurdistan.  Which is just about the worst nightmare for the Turks come true, hence the still remaining risk of a Turkish military operation ostensibly to create a ‘buffer zone’ but really to save face.  That kind of intervention will remain a possibility for as long as the Turks can continue to hope to commit aggression against their neighbors under the protection of NATO and the USA.  And that ain’t gonna change anytime in the future.

And then there are the Saudis.  They are very, very angry.  They are angry to the point of making not so subtle threats about using nuclear weapons to deal with their adversaries.  See for yourself:

Actually, since Pakistan got The Bomb, I would not dismiss any Saudi claims of having a number of nuclear devices.  But what does that really mean?

Absolutely nothing.

It is quite possible that the Saudis have the know how for a nuclear device.  And it is quite possible that they even got their hands on enough nuclear materials for a few bombs.  They might even have succeeded in purchasing a few nuclear devices from the Pakistanis or Israelis.  But even if that is true, the reality is that the Saudis don’t even have the military capability to deal with the poorest Arab country on the planet (Yemen) and that they most definitely don’t have the military capability to engage their nuclear devices in a way which would allow them to achieve any kind of military advantage.  After all, what are we talking about here?  Using nuclear weapons against the Syrian military?  Against Iran?  Against Russia?  This is absolutely ridiculous.  The reality is that whatever nuclear capabilities the Saudis might or might not have, the fact that they would make nuclear threats is just a sign of weakness and fear, not a sign of strength.  This is why nobody is impressed by these statement, least of all the intended targets of such threats.

While it is quite true that the latest agreement between the USA and Russia does not mark the end of the war in Syria, it is a turning point, a kind of a Minsk-2 Agreement which nobody really wants to comply with, but which seals the defeat of the AngloZionist plans in Syria as much as Minsk-2 meant the defeat of the Ukronazi dream.

Time is now on the Russian/Syrian side.  With each passing day the Russian task force in Syria will become more powerful, as will the Syrian Armed Forces.  That, by itself, will not be enough to defeat Daesh, and we can expect a stiff resistance from the Takfiri crazies, but the writing is on the wall for all to see: the more the Russians and the Americans become directly and jointly involved, the less Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be able to determine the outcome of the war.  In other words, while this is far from being the end of Daesh, it is the beginning of the end for Daesh in Syria.

Yet again the nay-sayers and Putin-haters have been proven wrong.  To be honest, so have I:  I would never have guessed that the Russians could have achieved so much with so little and yet they did pull off this extremely dangerous gamble and they won.  Only an extremely skillful combination of military, economic, diplomatic and political means could have yielded such a remarkable result but Putin, apparently, found this perfect mix.  The path ahead remains extremely dangerous, for sure, but the outcome of the 20 week long Russian military intervention in Syria is nothing short of remarkable.

The Saker

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  1. “To be honest, so have I: I would never have guessed that the Russians could have achieved so much with so little and yet they did pull off this extremely dangerous gamble and they won.”

    Putins end goals are known, but when it comes to tactics, the only thing predictable is the unexpected. His thinking is his own, not simply the gurgitation of accumulated knowledge. Original.

    • Torah Jews: Extend their morality to non Jews
      Talmudic Jews: Follow a form of psycopathy where they exert zero morality to non Jews. (With the Chutzpah and thin skinned nature to demand it for themselves)

      There are two ethical sects to Jews. Khazarians/Askenazi Jews. Converted in twelve century to an abrahamic faith for political convenience. Sephardi Jews. Likely decendents from biblical Jews.

      Ashkenazi elite who are Talmudic Jews control the US, Israel, France and Germany, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They do this via controlling money supply and then buying mass media (demonising enemies and lauding allies) and corporations. Unfortunately their management is terrible so only by extending their icy touch can they expect success.

      I think it likely that Ashkenazi/Khazarian Talmudic profile is very common in the AngloZionist empire.

    • ” Putins end goals are known, but when it comes to tactics, the only thing predictable is the unexpected. His thinking is his own, not simply the gurgitation of accumulated knowledge. Original.”

      Very well, said, Peter.

      It’s called intelligence. And it is what the psychopathic Western control-grid lacks by definition.

  2. War party not interested in peace,not at all.

    Pentagon, CIA heads demand to increase pressure on Moscow over Syria.

    NEW YORK, February 23. /TASS/. Top military and intelligence officials in U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration want to increase pressure on Moscow by expanding support to militants fighting in Syria after the agreement was reached with Russia on the ceasefire in Syria on February 27, the Wall Street Journal online newspaper said on Tuesday.

    The publication called Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Marine General Joseph Dunford and CIA Director John Brennan an “alliance of Russia hawks in the cabinet.”

    According to the daily, at the last meeting in the White House Obama’s top advisers expressed extremely bellicose views towards Moscow.

    More:
    http://tass.ru/en/world/858470

    • MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. Those who cast doubt on the Russian-US agreements on Syria are in fact calling for war, not for peace, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday at a meeting with Co-Chairman of the Initiative to Reduce Nuclear Threat and member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe Sam Nunn.
      READ ALSO
      Putin discusses initiatives of Russia-US Syria statement with Iran’s president — Kremlin
      Putin explains essence of Russia-US statement on Syria in phone talks with Saudi King
      Russian lawmaker warns Russia-US deal on Syria ceasefire may face resistance inside US
      Putin discussed Syrian settlement with Bashar Assad — Kremlin
      Syrian Foreign Ministry: Groups violating ceasefire to be regarded as terrorist
      “Today there are many people who want to prevent the normal development of cooperation between Russia and the United States. There are even those who are trying to undermine the opportunities to promote the Russian-U.S. agreements and boost our cooperation on the most pressing issues of our time,” the minister said.
      “Literally on the day when Russia and the United States approved the joint initiative on the ceasefire in Syria, voices could be heard from the capitals of the US allies and from Washington which questioned the viability of this agreement,” Lavrov said. “We want to say frankly that these voices are a call for war rather than for peace.”
      “I very much hope that politicians of your level with a responsible approach to developments will counter these negative trends and promote fair, equitable and mutually advantageous cooperation between our countries,” the minister added.

      More:
      http://tass.ru/en/politics/858573

      • UNITED NATIONS, February 24. /TASS/. Russia and the US have drafted two blueprints of a UN Security Council resolution in support of the agreement on ceasefire in Syria, reached earlier this week, a source at the UN headquarters told TASS.
        In the coming days, a united resolution will be drafted on the basis of these blueprints.
        “There are two texts, the American and the Russian, and the task now is to converge them into one,” the source said, calling coordination of the future resolution a tedious process, especially considering the fact the case in hand was Syria.
        Another source told TASS Russia and the US were holding discussions of the document in a bilateral format and no versions of the text had been circulated among other members of the Security Council.

        More:
        http://tass.ru/en/world/858479

    • MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. Russian-US agreements on ceasefire in Syria may face resistance in the United States, Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee chairman Konstantin Kosachev said on Wednesday.
      READ ALSO

      Putin discussed Syrian settlement with Bashar Assad — Kremlin
      “This agreement started to face resistance inside the United States. In any case, yesterday I noticed statements by military leadership of the country, the Pentagon, from special services, in particular CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) that say that Russia cannot be trusted, (Syrian) President Assad cannot be trusted. These agreements (on ceasefire in Syria) will not be implemented by these sides by default, and it is necessary to develop a ‘plan B’,” Kosachev said at the meeting with Executive Director of the Center for the National Interest Paul Sanders.
      The Russian lawmaker expressed concern that “US military are not working in unison with US diplomats and the US president.” “I will be glad to be mistaken but it is very important now for the pressure on conflicting parties in Syria to be as consolidated as possible, for us to separate terrorist groups from the internal conflict in Syria by joint efforts as they deserve a joint response and joint strike, both political and military,” he noted.
      Kosachev added that another obstacle for implementation of Russia-US agreements on ceasefire in Syria may be the presence or lack of support of these agreements inside Syria. He reminded that the Syrian government already supported the agreement. However, he added, there are doubts on whether the armed opposition will support the deal.

      More:
      http://tass.ru/en/politics/858541

    • Did you expect the Anglo-Zionists to tamely go down without putting up a fight?
      What we are seeing here is the expected behaviour.
      This is just the dawn of a multipolar world, it will take several years for people to stop behaving like animals.

      • ”Did you expect the Anglo-Zionists to tamely go down without putting up a fight”? Emphatically no. But I do expect the US deep state, suffused as it is with neo-cons, liberal hawks and humanitarian interventionists, to be undergoing a collective apoplectic seizure right now. After their collapse in the Syrian adventure expect them to turn up the heat in Ukraine.

        • John Smith said: “After their collapse in the Syrian adventure expect them to turn up the heat in Ukraine.”

          Actually, I’d expect the counter-attack in a different theater of operations.

          Like South Africa, where the ANC is speaking out against a color revolution, Brazil with the oil-related economic turmoil and impeachment move afoot, or Venezuela suffering from the oil collapse and economic warfare, all of which the resistance to AZ hegemony cannot readily reach to counteract as they could in Ukraine and Syria.

          Not to say that the Banderite storm-troopers won’t enjoy orders to turn up the heat, but getting their butts whipped twice may have put a damper on the vitriolic warhawks going full kamikaze for a while.

  3. Excellent analysis as usual saker u r a godsend compared to the rest of the rubbish that is written about russia. The Anglo-Zionist are still playing a dasterdly game for Kerry stated via the state department that their is a plan B which is really their plan A but publicly saying plan b for the balkanization of Syria. Hence the pinzer effect that the Syrians are mounting on Raqqa will have to go on turbo drive. These Cabalist /ashkanazi-khazarian mafia will never let up they will go 4 broke balkanize the whole area weaken them and bolster their Zionist dream. Barzani his deeply inbeded with these mobsters if the Iraqi Kurds dont get rid of him I can still c problems in the north eastern corridor of Syria. Erdoghan ,Barzani and the mobsters all made a deal in 2012 and that was balkanization of the area. Divide and conquer. Yestrerdays news gets wrapped in todays fish.

  4. NATO Hiding in Norway — Syria and Ukraine Nowhere to Hide. Stephen F. Cohen, NYU, Princeton

    According to S Cohen,Washington wants the ‘head’ of Putin and at any price.

    No peace only more wars in sight even if the US must sacrifice the EU vassals and the stability of Europe with even more refugees.Face saving is not enough,they want to be back to full domination(unipolar world).

    https://audioboom.com/boos/4221124-nato-hiding-in-norway-syria-and-ukraine-nowhere-to-hide-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestacoord-com

  5. Excellent analysis Saker… thank you for pulling all the pieces together.

    The Aussie media has not yet mentioned the Peace deal… very odd.

    But then all the news we get about Russia is about 3 days late, no doubt it has to go the long way round (via the US censors) before it reaches down under.

    • And as in New Zealand the only news we get is anti-Russian sourced from the BBC or Reuters. I know what is really going on from coming to sites like this. Unfortunately the rest of the country is non the wiser and think Russia is bombing civilians, hospitals and causing the refugee crisis. Well done Russia. You are our only hope for a better, peaceful world.

      • I logged onto the NZ Herald to see if they reported the NZ vote at the recent UN Security council meeting… and there was nothing (NZ voted against Syria’s right to keep it current borders). As for the rest of NZ they are too busy congratulating themselves on their inflated house prices to notice that their wages have been reduced to insignificance, and their cost of living will probably soon be amongst the highest on the planet.
        It used to be a nice place… last century.

      • Confirming what we just said…. and already know.

        News on developments around the world are generated by the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House and by think tank “experts”, who deliver the official point of view.

        The American public is being constantly misinformed regarding global affairs, Stephen Kinzer, a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, writes in his article for The Boston Globe.

        “Under intense financial pressure, most American newspapers, magazines, and broadcast networks have drastically reduced their corps of foreign correspondents,” he says, stressing that a lot of important news about the world now comes from reporters based in Washington.

        http://sputniknews.com/us/20160221/1035117709/us-media-coverage.html#ixzz419O7baBq

        • Who gets their info from old school networks anymore ? Regular media and their satellite operations are obsolete and will not survive. After all that is why we come to sites like The Saker for alternative views of the world

  6. Thanks, Saker. This is a glorious moment, for the same reason, as you suggest, that Minsk 2.0 is a glorious moment – because it has held the whole world to its terms ever since. And so will this agreement. It is a model for the future world, as Putin says, and it extends far beyond Syria in its achievement.

    I’ve written the following in a couple of other places, about this agreement:

    It’s the result of continual effort. It’s a masterful agreement. It is changing the world back to UN-sanctified agreements within international law, and Putin specifically stated the countries where the US action had produced devastation by breaking out of that previous norm.

    Russia and the US are now co-chairs on peace in the world. One by one, countries will come under this umbrella, and Russia has earned its place as principal guarantor of the good behavior of the US through the strength of its arms, and the force of its diplomacy.

    This forces US to share information with Russia or risk losing any undisclosed assets in the field to Syrian and Russian firepower. All the bad guys will be destroyed over time. Syria will liberate its land militarily where it can, and through diplomacy and negotiation, over a longer time frame, where it can’t (e.g. Golan Heights). Russia will keep the US in check, and the UN will be the benchmark for all disputes of sovereignty.

    • With it’s army of Terrorists on the run, how is Washington going to partition Syria? Turkey and the Saudis’s are isolated and every one else in the Middle East is kissing up to Russia…….including the Israelis. The American public is waking up to the reality that Russia actually has competent leaders. Usually when that happens, they will switch their support to the winning team. Americans hate losers…..it’s just a matter of time.

  7. I think this will yield military advantage, too, due to Saker’s seventh point. The Syrian army’s enemies have now been divided into those who are currently still fighting them and those who are, for the moment at least, not. They get to concentrate their full strength on the first group and just keep tabs on the second unless or until it, or bits of it, violate the cease fire.
    If it holds for any length of time, by the time the supposedly “non-terrorist”, ceasefire observing opposition return to the fight, the opposition in general’s position will have eroded significantly. If it holds until Isis et al. have been effectively defeated, Syria and allies will be left with a much smaller enemy stripped of its craziest elements; at a minimum they will be far easier to defeat, at a maximum the remainder will see which way the wind is blowing and throw in the towel.
    Simply put, this agreement allows the pro-Syrian forces to divide their enemies up and defeat them in detail. Sweet!

      • Thinking about it further, I can see downsides. The US will no doubt seek to define territory held by ceasefire participants as broadly as possible, restricting where Syria and its allies can attack. Further, it will do its best to ignore their violations of the ceasefire or blame them on other groups “mixed in” with the innocent ceasefire participants, while arguing that Syria, Russia et al. can’t attack back because it would hit the “innocent” ceasefire participants along with the al-Nusra or whoever hiding among them. And if they do strike back against ceasefire violators, it will be used massively for propaganda. Basically, the US is likely to seek to let the active terrorists use the currently-inactive terrorists as human shields. Tough Russian negotiators will probably have fair success in limiting these two factors, largely by threatening to take their marbles and go back to the battlefield.
        Further, of course, the US will seek to arm and supply the ceasefire observing groups, and generally strengthen them while they are not fighting. Also, Isis will use ceasefire territories as safe zones to retreat into and regroup.
        Despite all this, though, I think overall the net benefit from the brute fact of the enemy having shrunk, with the pro-Syrian forces able to concentrate on fewer foes on fewer fronts, will outweigh these difficulties.

        It may be that the US has a cynical longer-term ploy in mind: Maybe they’ve decided that Isis is too far off the reservation, too much under the control of Saudis, Turks etc. and maybe even (shudder) themselves, to be a good proxy force for the US. Maybe their plan is to build and take stronger control over those forces that go for the cease fire, and simply let pro-Syrian forces take out Isis and al-Nusra, encouraging individuals in those groups to defect to the US-controlled “moderates” that they’ve been unable all this time to turn into a significant faction. Then they start over with more controllable proxy insurgents.
        If that’s their plan, though, I think they’re dreaming, throwing good money after bad. The forces those insurgents would be up against are just too tough now, and I suspect the people of Syria have had enough. They’d be starting from too weak a position and fighting uphill, and anyway I seriously doubt the US will be able to corral themselves such a force in the first place. Bottom line, there are plenty of angry Arabs willing to do violent things, but hardly any willing to do them for the United States. Arab proxies for the US cannot hold together if they know they’re proxies for the US. So the more controllable the proxy insurgent, the weaker it will be.

        • One of the largest US military bases in the world including enough fire power to defeat every single country except Russia is 50km from IS’s main logistics line..

          That’s like saying my 15 year old party hearty daughter who stays upstairs is not under my control and I have no idea when she’s home or not..

  8. After the loss of Kosovo, the Russians won successive victories in Abkhazia, South Ossethia, Crimea and NovoRossia, and now Syria. Quite a streak to win against The Empire.
    After Syria, without catching a second of break, the battle will move back the the main field – surpassing your enemy economically. Russia has been slowly growing and USA slowly decaying, but the gap is still too big for this tempo to be meaningful. I hope Russia accelerates economic growth similar to China, Hong Kong, and … actually like Estonia.

    • Whether Russia won in Eastern Europe is debatable. The Baltics, Montenegro, Kiev, Moldova, and more are not so clear – winning might be a lot clearer, such as NATO not moving east at all. And one could argue that Russia lost in Libya and Iraq. And losing huge business partners in the Ukraine and Turkey is a serious blow to Russia.

      Industrially and financially, Russia is a mixed bag. Can you name a couple of successful Russian brands in the West? Pick any field – electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, robotics, microprocessors, high-tech materials, cars, etc.

      Russia will be hard pressed to be like China or Estonia. Estonia is a small country that keeps getting smaller in terms of population that has a big brother in Finland and China had massive Western investment and a system where the oligarchs were under control. Russia still has to deal with its oligarch problem, which is a big cause of the disasters, such as the Ukraine. Moscow can find billions of euros for bargains and enticements for their partners, such as people like Kholomoisky, but can’t find a few million euros to promote Russian culture, language, and even just a political point of view. The NGO Gap has been killing Russia.

      • In Iraq Russia is coming back, with a force.

        It is amazing, as Iraq has been military controlled by the US, the current State, army and government of Iraq had been built by the US.
        Yet, Iraq is slowly but surely moving towards Russia and away of the US.

        • Pavlo,

          I can’t comment on that, but I have noticed a trend among online Zionist to create a perception of Shia extremists – a counter-‘ISIS’ so to speak, but just as bad.

          The Saudi ‘Operation North Thunder’ claimed (before they shut him up) that Iran (Shia) was extending its ‘demographic footprint’ in Iraq by supporting and arming Shia ‘extremists.’

          The Iraqi Popular Militias have said on no uncertain terms that Saudi will face consequences if it attempts an invasion of Iraq.

          I have also read several reports – going back a few months – of KRG peshmerga forces ‘defecting’ to join the Popular Militias, and the head of one of the Popular Militias announcing that they ‘didn’t trust’ the US.

          The Zionist trend to generating a perception of Shia ‘terrorism’ may be because this orientation away from the US is becoming stronger.

      • The Soviet economy was not built on Consumer brands which is why its GDP was understated. It was a Producer Goods society because that was the focus of Socialist Economics and the quality of optical goods, heavy presses, aircraft, jet engines, hydrofoils, MilSpec production was high.

        Western societies hollowed out core manufacturing to focus on brand labels made by OEM contractors in cheap labour centres – every major Western brand is essentially like “Virgin” a label applied to another producer’s product with the economic rent accruing to the label not the product.

        The USSR did this in 1947 when it produced “Kiev” cameras using equipment looted from Carl Zeiss in Jena but did it so badly it had to return the equipment to Jena and send the “Zeiss Ikon” cameras to Kiev to have a “Kiev” label stuck over the Zeiss Ikon badge.

        Russia has not focused on consumer goods. Even under the USSR the electronic calculators used by Beriozka Stores were all “Brother” of Japan

      • USA for example was forced to close the NASA developmental space program because of the Russian equipments needs for this program. This for now only one, but I can name many more.Even every country around the world will collapse , but for sure Russia will still alive, because of the hardship what they went through the centuries.None of the nations are so strong like Russians and I’not Russian

  9. Hi Saker & everyone else,

    I have few questions in connection to the article above:

    a) What do you make of the latest development that so-called moderate opposition has joined forces with ISIS and cut off the supply route along the Khanasser-highway?

    What does this mean for the truce and what does this say about the SAAs ability to finish the job on their own? It’s been over 24h and IS seems to be holding ground and even advancing further in some places.

    b) What do you think about the rumors that Saudi & friends have been secretly amassing weapons, equipment and personell in Lebanon for a surprise “decapitation” strike/invasion on Damascus in co-ordination with Turks in Azaz? (Perhaps even from Jordan). Sounds like a doable plan and something Russia would have a hard time countering.

    But, how plausible is this considering Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon? Jordan seems easier to get them to go along.

    Really curious to see what you guys think!

    Regards,

    Alex

    • Here’s what Zaid Fadel has to say:

      “”ALEPPO: Terrorist supporting websites were clamoring for attention after hearing of a substantial reinforcement of ISIS forces (in unison with Nusra/Alqaeda) at the Atharyaa-Khanaassir Axis which was supposed to block the highway between Aleppo-Hama and Aleppo-Al-Raqqa. We, at SyrPer humbly respond with a big Bronx Cheer (raspberry) to their idiotic vituperations. The ISIS/Alqaeda plan was a big flopperoo. As I write, the Syrian Army with the help of the PDC is now hunting down each and every one of those estimated 2,000 rodents who, through sheer stupidity, managed to link their fate to the already doomed ISIS rats trapped like, well, rats, east of Aleppo.”

      • @Eimar

        Thanks for the info, seems to be the case, not much info coming out, not even through local Twitter accounts, but yeah, seems the attack was a bit of a flop… nothing more but a distraction.

        All in all, good news! Let’s hope the positive trend continues…

    • None of that matters much outside of a general NATO backed attack on Syria. First the road link to Aleppo has been cut several times before on the Khanasser highway. Thats a fluid fight that goes back and forth. But IS is losing it overall. These attacks by IS will soon be nothing more than harassment as the strategic situation goes against them in Aleppo and Raqqa.

      Second, a Saudi decapitation strike against Damascus is not very doable and certainly will not be a surprise. The Syrians have plenty of intel in Lebanon which they used to control not long ago. Plus the Russians have formidable surveillance over the entire region. There is no chance of a surprise here and the Syrian/Iranian/Hezbollah backed by Russia would, IMHO, rip the Saudis apart.

      • @Ngoyo

        Good point, haven’t thought about it in that way – but you’re right, they would never be able to pull a “decapitation strike” off without NATO help so they can come in from several axes simultaneously. And yeah, hardly a surprise anymore if this conspiracy rumor is true – if it ever was true to begin with.

        While I don’t wish for war, I would like to “see” into the possible future where the Saudis do something stupid like this and get totally “rekt” by Russia and others that have a score to settle with the Saudis. If there ever was a nation on earth deserving annihilation, it’s Saudi Arabia.

  10. One reason Russia and its leading team under president Wladimir Wladimirowitsch Putin achieved such brilliant results is that they have the most powerful partner on its side: the truth. Western people used on lies in politics like used on flies in a dirty place are always underestimating the power of truth.
    People nowadays have antennas to feel very properly who is telling the truth and who is telling lies.

    • Hmmm . . . A noble sentiment, but to paraphrase Stalin,
      How many battalions does the truth have?
      Putin seems to have learned well something that us righteous folks need to internalize: You will not triumph because your cause is just, so you better damn well figure out a way to make your just cause triumph.

  11. breaking

    “John Kerry is an incredible motivator! He has just told Syrian jihadi-controlled rebellion that all it has to do is sabotage the upcoming ceasefire he has agreed to with Moscow and he will reward them with a mini-state carved out from Syria. What better incentive to abide by the deal and cease hostilities could he possibly give them?

    John Kerry, the US secretary of state, has said he will move towards a plan B that could involve a partition of Syria if a planned ceasefire due to start in the next few days does not materialize, or if a genuine shift to a transitional government does not take place in the coming months.”

    http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/kerry-says-if-ceasefire-fails-he-may-partition-syria/ri13017

    yup, the two faced absolute liar of ************************* is carrying on as usual..yes but no……..

    • MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. Russia is not aware of any “plan B” on Syria, a source in the Foreign Ministry told TASS on Wednesday.
      “The Russian side is not aware of any ‘plan B’ that US is talking about. Intensive work on the statement was carried out, and it is necessary to hurl all effort into its practical implementation,” the source said.

      More:
      http://tass.ru/en/politics/858494

    • john kerry kohn is a cohen firster a bones man second.
      you can trust his plan a or b take it to the goldman sack of bank.
      goy you can trust this cohen.
      balkanise syriana no no
      just trust them aske nazi

  12. @TheSaker

    “The other big winner here are, in my opinion, the Kurds who, according to British officials, appear to be coordinating their military operations with the Syrian army and the Russian Aerospace Forces and who now might well even achieve their dreams of joining the Iraqi and Syria regions of Kurdistan”

    How does the partitioning of Syria represent a defeat for the AZE? The breakup of Syria is central to the zionist Oded Yinon Plan.

  13. Time will tell. Putin may be hoping to replicate his Ukraine containment, which the Obama administration has no doubt been studying closely.

    Obama’s Thanksgiving Turkey surprise burned two nagging birds – Erdogan and Putin – with one well-timed stone; his ‘long game’ is not to be underestimated.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/18/president-obamas-year-end-message-i-played-the-long-game-and-i-won/

    The DAESH are far from finished, and although the Islamic State has been left out of the ceasefire, it can be used to draw forces away from the so-called moderates until they can recover sufficiently to strike anew themselves. And that’s just the most obvious interpretation.

    Assad’s first instinct is correct; crush the DAESH completely then talk peace. The Saudis have talked cease fire in Yemen only to advantage ‘surprise’ attacks.

    Obama’s long game appears to be based on giving the opponents he can’t thwart openly, all the rope they need to hang themselves, then leave them dangling to America’s favour.

    Republicans, Petreus, Hillary, Nuland, Erdogan, even Putin, all thought they were getting their way with Obama, but a commensurate toll was always exacted.

    • Ukraine containment?
      Minsk has failed and now as of the 23rd aka Protector of the Fatherland Day, the whole contact line in the DLR is seeing action on the behalf of the Uki’s.
      The Kiev Government is falling apart, Right Sector members are now starting to realise that their problem seems to be more the Dual Citizens in power and so we get WAR.

      http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/02/a-restless-night-in-donbass.html

      http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/02/kherson-self-defense-openly-calls-for.html

      If it is to be, may strength and perseverance be for the NAF and this time, all the way to Kiev and beyond. Time to clean house.

      • Hostilities always continued after any Ukranian ‘ceasefire’. Putin let them stand anyway till the next version was signed. His objective was to win economically.

        Kiev bled so much heavy equipment and personnel in various cauldrons, particularly grandstanding at Donestsk airport, that low intensity warfare is really all they can manage. The only outlet for their aggressive leaders seems to be political infighting and there is no way to put down the warlordism. Save for the power grid, which is nuclear, the national economic infrastructure is a total loss to war and corruption.

        For Russia (not so much Novorussia), NATO/Kiev is contained; militarily weak, domestically politically stymied, and whether NATO/EU care to admit it or not, they have to buy what they broke and its all on Ukraine’s side of the fence.

        Mariupol was potentially within Novorussian grasp; a risky potentially costly prize that Putin strongly advised the rebels to let go to conserve resources. Subsequent harsh rebel experience at Donestk airport made the wisdom of the move obvious in hindsight.

        Ukraine was one bit tabletop wargame. It would be a mistake to forget Syria-Iraq (Turkey?) are also one tabletop.

        Putin’s willingness to let imperfect cease fires stand may be a weakness; there were no third parties in the Ukraine duel.

        IS is not party to the ceasefire – but neither is Turkey. Assad is not incorrect in desiring to completely defeat DAESH; while like the Novorussians at Marioupol, the cost of a pyrrhic victory would be the war, the cost of not winning now, might also be the war.

        Turkey can now move to rearm its proxies the same way the Anglo-Zionists will move to rearm theirs and that’s cheap compared to Ukraine. Turkey also now has a ceasefire to abuse, which may lure them from posturing lunacy to commission of lunacy.

        Kerry is clumsily trying to misdirect, saying that partition is Plan B, but partition was always Plan A.

        Iraq was well on the road to partition. The Kurds, then IS, are reduced to fighting only for their core areas. Ambitions to take the entire country are realistically harboured only by Baghdad, backed by Iran, quietly by Russia, and dishonestly by the U.S..

        In contrast, all of Syria’s factions have ambitions for the whole pie. IS in Iraq strongly appears dependent on IS in Syria. For the U.S./ NATO, Syrian unitary state ambitions must be ended.

        From this perspective, Syria must partition first, not just geographically but as a national polity. If Iraq partitions first, it sets an example the Assad government can use to unite Syrians. If Syria partitions first, it sets an example for partition Baghdad can no longer easily ignore.

        However, Washington is also on a timer. Moderate, secular Sunni Iraq, the West’s only true natural ally pool, is well on its way to extinction. More seriously, Iraqi Kurdistan is imploding on its own, the shining example of partition devoured within and without by festering corruption.

        https://www.rt.com/op-edge/332408-iraqi-kurdistan-collapse-turkey-oil/

        This wouldn’t be so bad if partition into failed states were set in stone, but its not, yet. At some point, the realization that partition into unrealistic mini-states, will be recognized as unrealistic to the locals.

        Unless something like a prolonged ceasefire without true peace, allows local warlords to get used to being the largest fish in smaller ponds, dependent on outside handouts. Syria is no good to Russia if they only have a rump Assadistan dependency under constant terrorist attack.

        Putin moved the war in the Ukraine from the battlefield to straight economics and politics. Ukraine is NATOs festering corrupt violent money hole. A little tat for that tit may be on order; balkanization is the likely vector and remains Plan A.

        • re: “Mariupol was potentially within Novorussian grasp; a risky potentially costly prize that Putin strongly advised the rebels to let go to conserve resources. Subsequent harsh rebel experience at Donestk airport made the wisdom of the move obvious in hindsight.”

          Is this really true? Many, including Borodai, say that they could easily have taken Mariupol but were ordered not to so as to make Akhmetov happy. He is a partner. The Kremlin wanted to use him as part of holding the Ukraine together and paying many of the bills in the Donbass. In other words, the actual issues were saving money and trying to have Akhmetov to work with. The trade-off is it is quite demoralizing for your troops. The reality is that the Kremlin has significantly different goals in the Ukraine than the people in the Donbass likely have. The Saker has mentioned this several times, and the situation in Mariupol would just be a minor example of it.

    • When we talk about dash, are we talking about nato special forces or some idiots in black going around raping goats and pillaging the women?

      There is a HUGE difference in capabilities between the two, if you seen them fight you would know. Most of the videos I seen, these guys behave exactly like the gangs of new York.. Even with the sideways shooting and high fiving Allah..

      Dozens of air America flights took a whole bunch of them to Yemen a few months back to help out against some more cave men without shoes because they were just too much for regular blackwater mercs to handle.. It hallowed out the dash shock army just like the imperial Japanese army.. They cant even defend against militias as we saw in Iraq. The professionals are having trouble with the Yemini cavemen though. Just like the dash offensive to block attacks against them resulted in hundreds of moderate terrorist pals getting the snout fried out of them in 2 days flat. I bet that was a British tactic.. Lawrence the destroyer of Arabia did the same thing to get them killed off to buy his whitey fiends a few days..

      The entire thing seems to be, the shock troops will take a location and then disappear. Since no one had the overwhelming firepower it was easy to hold onto locations with just gangsters. They mined and placed IED’s in all positions which would be used by any attacker.. It has been a while since I seen a professionally planned op.. Maybe because a lot of them were sent to Libya as well. From all I can see, off the 50,000 das mercenaries now only the 30,000 or so gang members are left, most are locals in it for the good times.. Might be a few thousand pros around to make sure no one runs off.. Heck they kill more deserters than are killed by the SAA and the Iraq military combined.. Even the Kurds killed like 300 of them taking that slave market.. In like 3 days.. In a city.. On the other hand the SAA kills a dozen in a major operation.. So the pros are only present in important logistical centers in blocking positions.

      The US has supposedly killed what 35000 of them by now? leaving just 15,000 left…ya right.. By now 35,000 wanna be terrorists would have fled the county for turkey and Europe for sure where the women are far easier than getting a bomb in your bed..

      • Your gangster reference is exactly what the great historian Toynbee called “Warbands”. I expect the West and their radical Islamic friends in the gulf will try to relabel Al Qaeda and ISIS fighters to a new “brand” that is acceptable to the Masters of the Universe.

        The new warband will have the same ideology as ISIS and will be used to continue the destruction of Syria in a slower violence way to the same ends. I suspect that Al Raqqah will be turned over to Sunni Salifi who are the same as ISIS , but will have a trademark name:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salafi_jihadism

        I fear that the ceasefire is just a chance for the warband corporate sponsors to restock their shelves and advertise their new product line. This will not end well…

  14. Sounds all rosy. So let’s hope there’s nothing to this story:
    https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/930
    Saudis, UAE Staging Troops in Lebanon for Damascus Attack; Turk Navy Deployed to Med to destroy Russian air defenses of Syria! Citizens told GET OUT of LEBANON IMMEDIATELY!

    My personal suspicion is, the only time the War Party ever agree to a cease fire, is when they need a pause in order to carry out some new evil plan.
    One part of that story is right – Russian forces couldn’t use nukes to stop that invasion path. So it would come down to numbers on the ground. With Syrian army forces no doubt concentrated in the North, and not much around Damascus.

    Sigh… or is this another case of trying to set up a scenario where nukes will be used (by the War Party, on the Saudi, UAE etc troops), and _blamed_ on Russia? End result – Damascus area radioactive, no more Assad, and Russia looking really bad. Meanwhile, the Saudis got to ‘test’ one or more of their recently announced nukes. So this was the reason for the false flag bombing in Ankara? To convince the Turkish military to go along with this? Since they’d think this way they won’t get nuked. But they _will_, by their own side.

    On the other hand, is it reasonable to expect Hisballah to sit around doing nothing while Turkey infiltrates troops and weaponry into Lebanon?

    TerraHertz

    • Yes, I read that with interest but it would be strange if Russia did not have SSNs on patrol in the neighbourhood tracking Turkish submarines which are German-designed HDW vessels U-214 diesel-electric similar to the ones Greece operates.

      I should think any attack on a Russian vessel would result in destruction of all Saudi and Turkish and Israeli vessels in the region and Iran moving on Riyadh and India neutralising Pakistan

    • This story is patent nonsense. Staging in Lebanon? For a surprise attack??? Isn’t that where Hizballah hangs out? And aren’t those the guys who are fighting in Syria along with the SAA, the Iranians and Russian Fed forces? The Saudi and their gulf partners are interbred buffoons, but even they are not that stupid.

      As for Turkey attacking Russian air defences from the Med? Don’t the Russian forces have considerable naval assets in the eastern Med themselves, including air defence and tactical nuke capability alongside their submarine forces? So Turkey and the Gulf inbreeds would attack Russia and expect to survive? I don’t think so. Such speculation can be brushed away scornfully without further thought.

      • Agreed. Remember the ‘Red line’ crisis of 2013; the U.S. had a large fleet of cruise missile destroyers, aircraft carriers with SEAD-capable fighters, and a serious Russian intervention wasn’t even thought possible beyond a few warships.

        Yet, America/NATO decided to back down in exchange for Assad destroying his chemical weapons, because the A2AD Assad possessed, with Russian naval help, was more than enough to wipe NATO out of the Mediterranean.

        Turkey and the GCC have not SEAD (Supression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities, which means, no breaching Syrian/Russian A2AD (Access to Areal Denial).

        The Americans no longer have confidence in their present A2AD capabilities; Turkey and the GCC have none. Which means, no hot war for the Arab or Turks in Syria, and certainly no American involvement.

        Only Erdogan’s Turkey might have the motivation of losing a war, to weaken its secular Kemalist army, because its ideologically opposed to the Islamic AKP.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defenses

        http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/new-us-defense-budget-18-billion-for-third-offset-strategy/

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil%E2%80%93military_relations_during_the_Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan_government

        The only way Russia/Syria could lose, is to give up winning conditions such as they enjoy now. This ceasefire is not to be trusted. Once the IS DAESH start losing really badly, they will just defect to the so-called moderate DAESH protected by the ceasefire.

  15. Military action and diplomacy go hand in hand. Russia is a master of both domains.

    Assad’s and Putin’s objectives haven’t changed a single inch since last September, while in Western media zillions of plans, accusations, white papers, suggestions, demands, lectures, grand chessboard moves, premature conclusion and assorted crap has been published.

    “By media hoaxes and wishful thinking we shall win”, still seems to be the motto of the controllers and parasites. Good luck with that!

    And so the restoring of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria moves on. At an ever increasing pace.

    Does Zion has the guts and the will to realize that it is running all its mission-critical programs on faulty software? This seems to be the only open issue that could hinder Assad and Putin from achieving a sensational, against-all-odds, historical victory.

    Long live Syria!

  16. Russia is scoring goals with lightning speed. The ceasefire will most probably intensify the Russian bombing raids but concentrated towards ISIS and Nusra. This is the fast track to the comprehensive defeat of jihadists. I guess, this means Syria will be cleaned up in full by the summer.

  17. US and nato will never begin a direct war against Russia. They know exactly that they will lose it and will be pulverized within 48 hours. Neither a first strike nuclear war neither a conventional. Russia’s geography and population structure gives it an utmost strategical advantage none can deny. Just take a map and look at it!
    What means this now? It means that a peace structure without Russia will not happen.

    • NATO is only the US. Germany is unstable and entering one of its turbulent phases. People forget that stability is very rare in German history and the 1949-2007 period very unusual. It is going more in the direction of 1923 when the country began breaking up internally.

      France has no wish to unravel any further. It has Britain acting as a magnet for Invaders in Calais and Germany sucking them in through Spain and Austria. Greece has been totally destroyed by Germany dismantling its border guards and Turkey setting out to destroy its former colonies like Greece and destabilise Europe

  18. “Fifth: the USA had to accept the humiliation of having to agree to all of the Russian terms for the current ceasefire. Yes, of course, the USA can, and probably will, try renege on part, or all, of this agreement, but the precedent has been set and it will be very hard, if not impossible, for the USA to openly return to the pre-2016 policies.”

    How unexceptional!

    Russia is now working peer-to-peer with US which is a massive shift from the narrative 6 months ago.
    The EU poodles have gone quiet and Iran is fast tracking commerce and SCO strategies.

    The only thing looking suspicious is the Saudi regime’s recall on Lebanon etc. Staff and citizens out. Are they aware of something immanent — e.g. a Israeli provocation? The global bully ‘pay back’ will be at the weakest point and that would have to be at the Hezbollah “+1″ in the Team 4+1.

  19. Why is everyone ignoring the Kurdish elephant in the room? Thesaker himself has alluded to the partition of Syria in favour of the Syrian Kurds.

    That is Oded Yinon 101. Good grief! The AZE are loving this ceasefire.

    • The emergence of a Kurdistan (from corners of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran) is not a partition. And if it does emerge then its viability is largely dependent on Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. There is high probability on a regional reconfiguration but ‘partition’ is a US PR word to disguise their folly.

      Symbolically, this is a Vietnam re-mix with all but the Huey copters on the embassy roof.

      Assad will stay for the transition and those that vote for him will remain in a viable Syria (minus some lost oil revenues — which were lost in any case). Assad gave concessions for a Kurd autonomous region some years ago as the strife escalated. It’s the other governance structures in the equation that need to adjust their policies.

      In any case, a rebuilt Syria will likely reclaim the Golan Heights (and its alleged oil) via war or UN diplomacy (which is now the ‘in’ thing once Yankee-Moon is trumped out on his Korean butt).

      Too early to see what will provoke the issue but recent Saudi warnings on Lebanon likely signal something is up — either that, or the meth pill supply has run out for the prancing princes.

      • So bits of Syria being given to an “emergent” Kurdistan is not partition? That is contradictory. Have you seen the Oded Yinon map and its inheritors? Kurdistan is central to the Zionist plans.

        The Iranians and Hezbollah went into this conflict stating that Syria’s integrity was not up for negotiation. The Russians have sometimes echoed this statement. They better stick to it or their conniving in the destruction of Libya will be seen as just that.

        • “… Kurdistan is not partition? That is contradictory. ” — suggest you think a loosely Federated Minsk II. The Australian Federation of Colonial States came together in a similar model for their ‘common wealth’. It is a workable model.

    • We aren’t ignoring it; we just don’t know what is going on. Syria is presumably going to have a Kurdish canton. It seems like the Syrian Kurds are becoming more on Russia’s side, whatever exactly that means. And we have no idea what the US is actually hoping to do with Turkey and the AKP. They seem to be playing their usual double game.

      The Yinon plan was based on the West calling the shots, with no input from Russia and Iran. Things may go the other way now, with the West significantly withdrawing from that region. Maybe they will try to blow everything up before leaving, in which case Turkey may be a sacrificial lamb. Who knows? For that matter, who knows what is going to happen in Iraq? Will Barzani finally be thrown in the ditch he so deserves?

      The West had plenty of plans for carving up Russia, just like the Yinon plan. Doesn’t mean it is happening. Might makes right, and the West has been unable to win on the ground.

      • The merest whisper of partitioning Syria is a ZIONIST concept — and if they manipulate Russia into championing that notion, then shame on Russia.

        There’s too much hopium sloshing about this thread. For example, Medvedev and the 5th columnists are still undermining Russia; and the Russian Central Bank continues to leech for the Western banksters.

        Now we have a ceasefire just as the Western proxy armies are beginning to fold…

        I don’t like any of it.

        PS and the “we don’t know what’s going on” argument works both ways, i.e. you don’t know what Russia is up to either. IMO, we’re as ripe for a betrayal as a victory

        • Autonomy for Kurds in Northern Syria is practically de facto – as agreed with Assad in exchange for the defence of the Syrian State.

          The original Zionist plan only wants a ‘Kurdistan’ that is controlled (currently via the Barzani clan in Iraq) by them.

          The Syrian Kurds – and increasingly the Turkish – are pivoting away from a Zionist/US-controlled partition.

          If the Zionists/Anglo- US oil cartel want control, they are more likely to get it through the HDP in Turkey, and it’s Turkey that faces the threat of civil war/partition now, rather than Syria.

          In fact Assad would probably be relatively happy with a Syria-friendly ‘buffer’ autonomous Kurd canton between Syria and Turkey.

          Particularly if governed by a Kurd/Syrian alliance hip to attempts to weaken the state overall: it is an open secret that Netanyahoo wants another ‘Israel’ carved out of Syria/Iraq.

          I don’t think the Syrian Kurds are going to oblige him – or the oil cartels – with that.

        • This is more of a simulacrum of a ceasefire than a real one. It is a political maneuver, and goes along with calling for elections, Russia’s UN report on all the terrible actions by the Turkish authorities, and more. Big-league politics.

          As for a betrayal, well, this partly depends upon what you think Russia (and Iran) are trying to achieve, and what they may have promised the Damascus authorities. Creating a Syrian Kurdish canton that keeps, say, 50% of its money and resources may have been part of the deal. You may not like it, but it may have been necessary, and will be helpful in controlling Turkey. Perhaps the future of Turkey will be the big game going forward. Whether the Anglo-Zionists will get their way there and in Barzanistan is going to be a fight.

          If you want to judge the Kremlin and Putin by what we have seen over the last 15 years, it has been a mix of liberal/neoliberal economics and a gradually stronger and independent foreign policy. The economics side has definitely looked ugly, but it is not so simple to say they are betraying people in foreign affairs. They are, after all, facing what is probably the strongest empire in world history.

          • This so called ceasefire has nothing to do with internally to Syria but to stop external factions from supplying logistics to the terrorists inside Syria. Right now everyone blames everyone else and because moderate factions get logistics openly, with a ceasefire they wont have the excuse of supplying moderate terrorists.. That’s it.. Nothing more or less..

            If they keep doing it, then Russia can come out openly and say it is external factions that’s the cause of the problems inside Syria because wont abide by the ceasefire. If turkey sends another 1000 fighters to azaz right now they have done it on 3 occasions to stop the YPG and Russian bombings etc… How will turkey explain their actions?

    • For the Kurds I think it best to look at how Putin handled the situation in Chechnya.
      I would guess Russia will be acting as the peacemaker between Kurds and the Syrian government.
      Syria and Kurds both have a common enemy in Turkey. I think some sort of deal where the Kurds have a good deal of domestic/regional autonomy but stays loyal to Syria – part of the sovereign state of Syria is what Russia will be aiming for. Russia is also in a position now to act as guarantor of an agreement for both parties.
      Russia has never deviated from the position that Syria will not be partitioned.

      • Now all that is needed is the billions of euros that were available for Chechnya. And that may be the problem in the case of Syria: everybody will desperately need whatever money is available and not want to share. Let’s hope that gas pipelines or gas offshore can enter into the equation before too long.

    • Engdahl often offers thoughtful analysis, but in this case, I think he oversimplifies to the point of absurdity. At the same time, let’s hope he’s right about the war on Syria not leading to nuclear war.

  20. » Actually, since Pakistan got The Bomb, I would not dismiss any Saudi claims of having a number of nuclear devices. «

    Haha, that Saudi analyst doesn’t know how to spin the nuke wheel. Such blunt and clumsy random remarks discredit the whole nuclear prop. They need to produce a video showing “nuke action” in the desert and then make a solemn official royal statement about it. Nuke’s Gospel requires skilled preachers, not such loose “analytical” canons.

    • The Saudi’s funded the Pakistani nuclear program with backing from the US. So this is not a joke. The design is Chinese which was based on soviet designs. hence we cant even be sure if they might have western micro and mini nukes available which neither India or china has or maybe not even Israel.. So the west helped Muslim’s get the nuke. Including China in there too.. When this thing blows up everyone can blame everyone else for it. The Saudi’s have a lot of pull with Pakistan. Just as much as the US does.. I don’t think any other pissboy throughout history has milked their masters as much as this terrorist nation. I would believe the Saudi’s if they say they have nukes, Pakistan wont have the option to refuse no matter what they say in public..

      • Well, you’ll remember I am 100 % convinced that it’s all one freakin’ hilarious joke. But last time I checked (end of December), heresies of Nuke’s Gospel were not welcome on this blog. So we’ll have to make do with reading the discussions and articles and watching the videos transitively accessible via the Google page I linked to, instead of adding to them or starting new ones.

        Just people should know that doomsday scenarios – as in the 1983 Hollywood movie »The Day After« (Nuke fanboys will love it! => uloz) – are just fearmongering, which is an essential ingredient of democracy:

        Rainer Mausfeld – Warum schweigen die Lämmer?

  21. Dear Saker

    With geat admiration I want to thank you.
    This is a crack of light in a very dark world.
    The Russians seem to be the only people capable
    Of learning from their mistakes.

    Onward

    Matto5

  22. The more we see of Putin the more we wonder what his real goals are. His speeches are wonderful. He speaks of international law in terms that are far more inspiring than the global Big Brother concept that Nato has been pushing. But the reality, beyond the rhetoric, seems to be a partnership between the US and Russia where Russia really just wants a bigger piece of the pie. For example. it looks to me like Putin refused to give Syria meaningful help until too late, even though Russia knew all along that Syria was fighting a proxy war against Nato and Nato’s regional allies. When Putin finally stepped in, like he meant it, it was just in time to fail to prevent dismemberment of Syria and probably too late to save Assad’s behind. the truce, such as it is, appears to be basically an agreement to cut Syria into two or three parts. The US will be more than happy with that outcome, I believe. It looks like Assad will be left with a rump state, if he manages to avoid the fate of Saddam and Quadaffi.

    I swear, this blog reads sometimes like it comes straight from the Kremlin PR dept..

    • well I think there were very many months of intelligence gathering and setting up embedded networks , establishing logistics, assessments-otherwise how could Rus be so quickly effective in its actions, setting up networks with SAA etc, probably Iran, Hezbollah to just find out what on earth was happening, and quite a bit of strategic planning too when all the ukraine stuff is happening-all possibilities to the endgame, remembering VP’s stated aim is to go after terrorists that threaten rus. and also timing re his presentations to UN and other forums etc, and in balance how effective Rus could be when clarity emerged how absolutely dire the situation was becoming…………..

    • » The more we see of Putin the more we wonder what his real goals are. «

      The more we see of Putin the more we realize his real goals are the restauration of Russia and the establishment, together with China, of a peaceful and prosperous Eurasian order where there can be no place for Uncle Sam – until the USA undergoes an American Revolution, leading to the removal, in one form or another, of those who have, for decades, hoaxed and robbed and raped and murdered the nations of the world, including, to a lesser degree, their own nation.

      And the more we, in Europe, watch Uncle Sam, the more we come to the conclusion that he is about to ignite another war in Europe. As if Europe hadn’t had enough of them. And more and more Europeans understand that Uncle Sam, in addition to being the Plight of the Planet, is their common enemy and the greatest threat to their future.

  23. Excellent summary.
    The US announced a Peace and claimed victory.
    You have summed up the reality well.

    except 8. The US is now a junior partner in the Russia/Iran/Syria/Hezbollah coalition.

    Whisper it very quietly

    • Very quietly I whisper a ‘thank you’ to Robert Kennedy – he it was who counseled his brother to take the more positive approach with the Kremlin in the standoff over missiles in Cuba when conflicting responses were coming forth from the Russian side and a nuclear catastrophe seemed imminent. His reasoning was that there are within each of the governments pressures at play which neither on its own has an accurate read to diagnose – and that is just as true today as it was then. Some things have to be taken on faith; it is better to think well of the leadership and act accordingly when so much is at stake.

      These are the kinds of acts of statesmanship that history remembers; this is legacy.

      • I like your comment. I’m sure, you are right with “Some things have to be taken on faith; it is better to think well of the leadership and act accordingly when so much is at stake.” To me only this opens the balance with the bone-hard facts on the military ground.
        I’m convinced, that the task of the leaders is to manage the awkward descend of the “exceptional nation” to normality without too much of unnecessary wreckage.
        Only good examples like Putin’s “we do not want to be a superpower” changes the spirit (= 75%)

        Who likes in a short deviation to contemplate this historic week from an even more distant, cosmic aspect finds it in the astromundane analysis of “A Whole Week in Six Mirrors”

        http://astromundanediary.blogspot.de/2016/02/2_22.html

  24. Welcome to the flag waving part:-),team chaos is in frantic form as the ‘moderate’ head choper narrative and ‘syrian civil war’ propaganda is unraveling fast.The kind machine gun hands of Kerry is shaking Hollywood perception managers to come up with a better ‘them vs us’ kool aid to feed the American shepels.Why the about face now? Well why not as the court has ruled that all ‘we came we saw he died’ fame mails are to be made public from 2009 to 2013!.Must itbe ememphasized that she initiated ‘assad must go’ policy and the transfer of head choppersfrom lLibya to Damascus!All the dirty laundry is soon to be dished out hence the run to quick fix….what will Hollywood come out with?..john wayne halfbred with Freddie kugar?

  25. Yes, Saker, it was close, very close and Putin pulled it off. The setting up of a “Truce Center” was a brilliant move out of which those who cooperate can be rewarded and those who do not do so can be dealt with. I hope we can see televised reports from this center so that the whole world can see Syria being put together again for and by the Syrians.

    Sorry Kerry no need for Plan B.

  26. To quote a famous line, this is not even the end of the begining. It is a calculated strategic pause.

    All sides are tired and need time to regroup, including the Russian contingent and SAA. At best this is consolidation.

    There are years left to travel on this road and Israel has not abandoned their plan.

    Nor have they been forced to do so.

    Btw, if Israel has a bomb, then so too do the Saudis. A nuclear false flag, to salt the earth and make Syria inhospitable, is still on the table. So far ten million Syrians are displaced. Israel will make sure they can never return.

    Russian victories are great but what of Syrian losses? Does anyone believe Syria in 20 years will look like Dubai?

    I sure don’t.

    • » Btw, if Israel has a bomb, then so too do the Saudis. «

      But they don’t. And don’t. And don’t. None of them does.

      » A nuclear false flag, to salt the earth and make Syria inhospitable, is still on the table. «

      Not on the table. Only in the perverse parallel universe of apocalyptic propaganda.

      » Does anyone believe Syria in 20 years will look like Dubai? «

      Dubai doesn’t produce anything. What is it built on? Drug money? Fiscal evasion? What will Dubai look like once the criminal money flow is cut?

      • Yes. My universe is perverse.

        It has nuke weapons and unfortunately, they work just fine.

        Tell us again Loom, how do the physics work in your diment-ion?

        This conversation is getting persoanl. Please shut it down. Mod TR.

  27. Saker wrote:

    Only an extremely skillful combination of military, economic, diplomatic and political means could have yielded such a remarkable result but Putin, apparently, found this perfect mix.

    You forget an important factor.
    That the warmongers in the U.S. still think of Russia as conquered territory so they can’t wrap their heads around the fact that Russia does not behave as they demand that a conquered territory should do. Since it was (and after Yeltsin is) not a conquered territory even if the dissolution of the USSR means they lost the cold war.
    The result of that is that every time Russia shows it has its own goals in the world they go nuts and reach for the nearest stick to punish the uppity that dares to interfere with their plans.
    That short sighted reaction tends to backfire. As seen in the Ukraine where that, combined with the need to have direct control instead of through the EU, resulted in them not just losing control of part of the Ukraine but also of the chance to evict Russia from Crimea.
    The same thing is happening in Syria. The short term effects of lashing out might provide the satisfaction of being able to show the world who is the boss but it is coming at the cost of their medium and long term goals.

    And then there is luck. I think you can think up at least half a dozen (deniable) provocations, on top of Turkey shooting down that SU-24, which would have required a greater commitment then Russia should/can give and Putin (and advisers) would want to commit to in Syria but haven’t occurred.

  28. When Russia first started bombing I said “give it a year and Daesh will be forced out of Syria”. Still a long way to go but the eastern desert will fall a lot quicker than the large cities. Once they break the northern supply route and either connect the Kurdish areas or have SAA take over the area in between Turkey will be unable to supply the quantities of munitions required to Daesh. Then the route is on bigtime.

  29. Why is it that nobody’s prefacing the word ceasefire with the important word partial? Not even Lavrov or Putin who certainly ought to know better. Is there something politically incorrect with the word partial, or did no party want the statement to reflect the truth of the situation and nature of the agreement? Am I the only person on the planet who sees this glaring oversight? Or is it that nobody gives a damn s*** about it?

  30. The EU and assorted other parties may not want to escalate the situation in Syria, but I can guarantee you that the IMPORTANT parties – the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia – certainly do.

    And they can. There are all sorts of options open to them, including Turkey invading Syria. Israel might even decide to invade Lebanon via Syrian territory, although the plan was to degrade Syria’s military badly first, then invade Lebanon to get rid of Hizballah.

    The idea that no one can invade Syria or escalate the situation because a UNSC Resolution says you can’t is a joke.

    It ain’t over until it’s over.

  31. What is starting to concern me is that in relation to Syria the nuclear option is being openly discussed.

    The Chinese are also worried about a nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsular. They clearly state that they will respond in kind if they believe they are being attacked or at a high risk of being attacked.

    Not to mention America’s provocations in the Sth China sea. The response from China is firm and clear, they have a red line and will use a military option if pushed too far.

    This is the first time in my life, since Cuba and I was too young then, that the nuclear option is being so openly discussed.

    It is worrying because it is almost as though we accept that it will happen, resigned …….

    There just needs to be a flash point, a miscalculation

    I expect just before WWI & II people were either asleep, lulled by the press, or thinking, “nobody would be that stupid”

    • http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/02/25/452201/US-Navy-sails-South-China-Sea
      The United States Navy plans to ramp up what it calls “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea, in the face of harsh criticisms from China that views the move as provocation.

      The sailings involve a US warship coming within 12 nautical miles of islets claimed by China as a way of rebutting Beijing’s assertions of sovereignty.

      South Korea dismisses China warning about US missile system
      Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:46AM
      http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/02/24/452032/South-Korea-China-US-THAAD

      South Korea has rejected China’s warning that a US missile system planned to be set up on Korean soil would harm relations between Seoul and Beijing.

      “The deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is a measure of self-defense against growing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea,” presidential spokesman Jeong Yeon-guk said on Wednesday.

  32. An excellent analysis. An amazing turn of events. Erdogan is toast and a fool. The Americans know the Kurds are ready to defect to Russia’s side if Turkey is let loose on them. And the Turks will lose anyways. The opticks of this are stunning. Europe will be looking at Russia with more respect.

    And of course the fighting will go on further demonstrating the proficiency of the Russian military.

    Putin for President!

  33. Under cover of truce with Russia, US prepares military escalation in Syria

    One day after Monday’s announcement by the United States and Russia of agreement on a partial “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, there are mounting indications that Washington is preparing a major military escalation of its drive to topple the Russian-backed government of Bashar al-Assad and install a puppet regime.

    http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/24/syri-f24.html

  34. USrael made clear their intention to continue their implementation of Oded Yinon plan for total dominance of Israel in the ME:

    “John Kerry, the US secretary of state, has said he will move towards a plan B that could involve a partition of Syria if a planned ceasefire due to start in the next few days does not materialize, or if a genuine shift to a transitional government does not take place in the coming months.”
    @http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/kerry-says-if-ceasefire-fails-he-may-partition-syria/ri13017

    They made it even clearer that in fact they expect this outcome:

    “Pentagon, CIA Prepare for Russia to Break Ceasefire in Syria, by Mary Chastain24 Feb 201678:
    The Pentagon and CIA do not believe Russia will honor the ceasefire agreement in Syria arrived at this week, according to sources speaking to The Wall Street Journal.
    Officials want to apply more “pressure on Moscow” to make sure they keep their end of the bargain. The Wall Street Journal reports that Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, and CIA Director John Brennan all have indicated they want to “inflict real pain on the Russians” should they break the ceasefire.”
    @www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/02/24/pentagon-cia-prepare-for-russia-to-break-ceasefire-in-syria/

    “Israel Is Changing Its Approach to Syria War Amid Assad’s Battleground Advances.
    Russian intervention has tilted the scales, and Jerusalem is concerned of a regime victory, which would be victory for Iran as well. To prevent that, Israeli officials believe West must intervene in favor of moderate rebels”, by Amos Harel Feb 21, 2016:
    …“the war in Syria has largely served Israel’s interests. The ongoing fighting has worn down the Syrian army to a shadow of its former capabilities. And Hezbollah, Israel’s main adversary in the north, is losing dozens of fighters every month in battle. Israel has been quietly wishing success to both sides and would not have been against the bloodletting continuing for a few more years without a clear victor” Now, after successful Russian intervention, Israel states openly that “an Assad victory would be bad for Israel” and it calls upon the West “to send real military aid to the less extreme Sunni rebels”.
    @http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.704437

    It looks that it was already decided that Russia will not keep its part of the bargain.

  35. I hope the Saker’s optimism is correct. However, all I remember is that in the case of Donbass, ceasefire seems not to help much, at least for many months. Thus people in Donbass get killed, but not reported, or even reported as killed by the Donbass resident “terrorists” themselves. So I could easily believe somethign similar could happen here. If Syria+Russia bombs someone they say they are bombing non-terrorists or civilians, and when terrorists shelled SAA, they say it’s just defense by the “moderate opposition”. It depends on who has the bigger microphone, it seems.

  36. Just remember to catch yourselves on if you find yourselves justifying a “free Kurdistan” for the Syrian Kurds — that is part of the Oded Yinon Plan.

    You might think that such an outcome is different from the Zionist plan, but it is not. It is the same outcome only they’ve got you thinking it was your idea all along.

    Don’t be played.

    • @“free Kurdistan” for the Syrian Kurds — that is part of the Oded Yinon Plan.

      This is the reason why US is backing the Kurds. The Mosul-Haifa pipe-line is still on the drawing boards. How else could you turn Haifa into “the Rotterdam of the Middle East”, the real objective of the “Operation Iraqi Freedom”?

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